New tools predict web page popularity

Since Digg stories generally peak in popularity after a few days, whereas YouTube videos can be much watched for months, the team trained its software on detailed data from each website to determine the exact relationship between initial activity and long-term popularity.
The team found that by applying their method to views of Digg stories within 2 hours of publication, they could predict the popularity of those stories 30 days after their appearance to within 10 per cent of the actual number of hits.

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